Latest Poll is Great News For Labrador, Terrible News for Minnick

Posted on Jul 15, 2010

No matter how you look at it, today’s poll by Bob Moore spells good news for Labrador and disaster for Minnick. There are a number of takeaways from this poll, not the least of which is this tidbit toward the end:

But even more telling, 61% of all voters would prefer “electing Republicans who will provide a check and balance on President Obama and Congressional Democrats” while just 23% prefer electing “Democrats who will help President Obama pass his agenda.”

It’s obvious that even a Blue-dog Democrat is still a Democrate and supporting leftist policies. On the generic ballot, 49% of voters choose the Republican and an even higher number, 61% think that it’s generally better to choose Republican. With President Obama’s agenda essentially getting a 23% approval rating, it seems that the link between electing Democrats and furthering the President’s agenda will pull Minnick’s numbers down, rather than give him a boost.

Another problem for Minnick is that being well-liked (52%) isn’t translating into votes. He can’t even get out of the 30′s on the test ballot.  Could it be that Idaho voters have learned a painful lesson (think Obama) about the difference between personal charisma and public policy?

On the question of Minnick’s re-elect score, Bob Moore writes:

Minnick’s re-elect score also indicates trouble for him with just 19% of voters saying he deserves reelection regardless of who runs against him. His total reelect score is just 38% while 40% of voters say it is time for a new person. Again, the voters who say “don’t know” on this question are more Republican (44%) than Democrat (25%).

61% of voters have yet to learn about Raul Labrador. This is a great opportunity for Labrador to get his message out as the campaign heats up this fall. Among voters who have formed an opinion of Labrador, he leads Minnick, 41% to 36%. When people get to know Raul, they like what they see.

The bottom line is that the President’s policies are deeply unpopular and that Idaho’s 1st CD is strongly conservative. When voters become informed, they realize that Labrador is the conservative choice. Minnick just isn’t doing enough to stand against Obama’s radical agenda. In fact, he’s supporting most of it.

In this case, what’s bad for Minnick is great news for Labrador.